| Level | Price | From price | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected target | 3.433 | +30.0% | plan leg |
| Projected target | 3.169 | +20.0% | plan leg |
| Resistance | 2.668 | +1.0% | bull target, read edge |
| Support | 2.376 | -10.0% | plan leg |
| Fib retracement | 2.138 | -19.0% | fib, invalidation |
| Daily open | 2.083 | -21.1% | calendar |
| Fib retracement | 1.975 | -25.2% | fib, swing |
| Swing low | 1.845 | -30.1% | swing, read edge |
| Prior week high | 1.697 | -35.7% | calendar, sr |
BTW is in an uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows — 2.138 is the floor that keeps it. What argues for higher: the chart is in an uptrend — higher highs and higher lows, and a moderate break of structure — the move through the last swing was real but not emphatic (moderate BOS). What argues for lower: volume divergence — trend weakening. The stronger case is higher: the trend and the timeframes lining up outweigh the other side — but not by enough to settle it yet, so the levels decide. New longs are coming in as price rises while price is pressing the ceiling at 2.668 — longs this close to a ceiling are either early to a breakout or fuel for a flush, and the ceiling decides which. The 1D uptrend is strong — orderly and participated. Price is above every period open (day, week and month) — buyers have held every open this month. Price is pressed right under resistance 2.668, the upper edge it has to clear, with 2.138 as the floor. So the uptrend is the frame: 2.138 holding keeps it intact, a close back above 2.668 restarts it, and a close below 2.138 breaks it.
2.668 (Resistance) caps the upside; a close that holds above it changes the picture. 2.138 (Fib retracement) holds the downside; it is the level that has to break for the bear case to work. Beyond the box, the next level is 1.845 (Swing low) below.
This path is 63% and it starts with a close and hold above 2.668. There is no mapped structure beyond the trigger — the move would run into open space. It fails on a close and hold below 2.138.
At 35%, this needs a close and hold below 2.138. That opens 1.845 (Swing low) then 1.697 (Prior week high). It fails on a close and hold above 2.668.
At 2%, price keeps rejecting both edges of 2.138–2.668 and the range holds.
A close above 2.668 that holds, with open interest still rising, means the longs were right and the move continues up. A poke above 2.668 that closes back below it traps those longs — that is the flush case, back toward 2.138. The way to get this wrong: buying into 2.668 after the crowd already has — wait for the close above it, or for the poke that fails.
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