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XMR/USDT · 1D · 11 Oct 2026
Monero (XMR) price analysis — daily chart
Monero (XMR) is trading at 535.1 on the 1D chart and is trending between 523.8 and 549.0. A close and hold above 549.0 turns the read higher; a close and hold below 523.8 turns it lower. The weight of evidence leans higher at 48%.
Key levels
Level
Price
From price
Role
Prior month high (not retested)
637.1
+19.1%
calendar, sr
2-TF resistance
571.1
+6.7%
confluent, sr
3-TF resistance
549.0
+2.6%
confluent, golden pocket
Order block
539.9
+0.9%
order block, fib
Golden pocket
530.0
-1.0%
golden pocket, calendar
2-TF support
523.8
-2.1%
bear target, calendar
Prior day low (not retested)
513.2
-4.1%
calendar, fib
Fib retracement
505.3
-5.6%
fib, read edge
Swing low
491.5
-8.1%
swing, read edge
Executive Summary
XMR is pulling back inside an uptrend — 523.8 is the floor that keeps the trend, and 549.0 is where it resumes. Bitcoin's daily chart is ranging — range edges have held more often than they have broken. What argues for higher: the uptrend is intact — this is a pullback inside higher highs and higher lows, and price is inside a bullish order block at 491.5–539.9. What argues for lower: the pullback itself is making lower lows on the small swings — the bigger swings still show higher highs and higher lows. Shorts are pressing a dip in an uptrend: shorts are crowded and still adding while price is drifting down toward the floor at 523.8 — the floor decides whether they are early or trapped. This is not a coin flip but one test: the 523.8 floor is where the crowded shorts are either proven right or trapped. Volume divergence — trend weakening. The decision sits between 2-TF support 523.8 and 3-TF resistance 549.0. So the uptrend is the frame: 523.8 holding keeps it intact, a close back above 549.0 restarts it, and a close below 523.8 breaks it.
Key Levels
The ceiling is 549.0 (3-TF resistance) — until price closes and holds above it, rallies keep running into the same sellers. 523.8 (2-TF support) holds the downside; it is the level that has to break for the bear case to work. Beyond the box, the next levels are 571.1 (2-TF resistance) above and 505.3 (Fib retracement) below.
Bull Case
This path is 48% and it starts with a close and hold above 549.0. That opens 571.1 (2-TF resistance) then 637.1 (Prior month high (not retested)). It fails on a close and hold below 523.8.
Bear Case
This path is 45% and it starts with a close and hold below 523.8. That opens 505.3 (Fib retracement) then 491.5 (Swing low). It fails on a close and hold above 549.0.
Sideways Case
At 7%, price keeps rejecting both edges of 523.8–549.0 and the range holds.
What to Watch Next
A dip below 523.8 that closes back above it traps those shorts — that is the squeeze case, back toward 549.0. A close below 523.8 that holds, with open interest still rising, means the shorts were right and the move continues down. The way to get this wrong: shorting into 523.8 after the crowd already has — wait for the close below it, or for the dip that fails.