| Level | Price | From price | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fib retracement | 69.46 | +7.7% | fib, sr |
| Golden pocket | 67.65 | +4.9% | golden pocket, swing |
| 2-TF resistance | 65.58 | +1.7% | confluent, order block |
| 2-TF resistance | 64.66 | +0.3% | confluent, fib |
| Order block | 64.10 | -0.6% | order block, calendar |
| 2-TF support | 61.00 | -5.4% | confluent, fib |
| Golden pocket | 59.64 | -7.5% | golden pocket, plan leg |
| Support | 58.78 | -8.8% | sr, plan leg |
| Fib retracement | 57.15 | -11.4% | fib, read edge |
LTC is pulling back inside an uptrend — 61.00 is the floor that keeps the trend. Bitcoin's daily chart is ranging — range edges have held more often than they have broken. What argues for higher: the uptrend is intact — this is a pullback inside higher highs and higher lows, and price is inside a bullish order block at 58.78–64.66. What argues for lower: a strong break of structure — the move through the last swing low carried 1.32x an average bar (strong BOS), and the weekly trend is down. No single reason settles it, but taken together the evidence leans lower (54% against 43%). The bear case has the mechanics: open interest is rising into the move — that is new shorts pressing, not longs bailing, which is what a breakdown with staying power looks like. Volume divergence — trend weakening. Price is pressed right under resistance 64.66, the upper edge it has to clear, with 61.00 as the floor. So the uptrend is the frame: 61.00 holding keeps it intact, a close back above 64.66 restarts it, and a close below 61.00 breaks it.
64.66 (2-TF resistance) caps the upside; a close that holds above it changes the picture. Overhead is a band, not a line — 65.58 (2-TF resistance) sits just above the ceiling 64.66, so a clean upside resolution has to clear the group. 61.00 (2-TF support) holds the downside; it is the level that has to break for the bear case to work. Beyond the box, the next levels are 67.65 (Golden pocket) above and 57.15 (Fib retracement) below.
This path is 43% and it starts with a close and hold above 64.66. That opens 67.65 (Golden pocket) then 69.46 (Fib retracement). It fails on a close and hold below 61.00.
This path is 54% and it starts with a close and hold below 61.00. From there the road runs to 57.15 (Fib retracement) then 55.46 (Fib retracement). It fails on a close and hold above 64.66.
At 3%, price keeps rejecting both edges of 61.00–64.66 and the range holds.
Holding above 61.00 keeps this a pullback inside the uptrend. A close below 61.00 breaks the trend's last higher low — that is how trends end. The way to get this wrong: calling the uptrend over before its last higher low breaks — the challenge only counts on a close through it.
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