AVAX/USDT · 1D · 2 Nov 2026
Avalanche (AVAX) price analysis — daily chart
Avalanche (AVAX) is at 8.550 on the 1D chart. AVAX is in a downtrend that is still pressing lower. The structure is still down: lower highs and lower lows, and the last lower high at 10.52 has not been taken back.
Downtrend, bouncing — inverted gap capping price
Where AVAX is
A downtrend still pressing lower.
AVAX is in a downtrend that is still pressing lower. The structure is still down: lower highs and lower lows, and the last lower high at 10.52 has not been taken back.
The weekly picture: a weekly downtrend, 94% under the all-time high; on the daily, price is above the 200-day (8.161), and the 50-day is above the 200-day. The daily trend runs with the weekly.
Price is testing a fair-value gap at 8.342–9.440 from the other side. The gap was left by a rally, then price closed straight through it — an inversion: the gap is now above price instead of below it. A close back above 9.440 means the inversion failed. It does not stand alone: the round number 9.000 and the 0.382 fib of the last swing sit at the same price.
AVAX rose 13% to 10.521 on the daily chart, then gave it all back, dropping 24% to 8.000, and has since won back about a third of that pullback. It is now trading in an 8.264–8.845 box. The 8.845 ceiling has turned price back 8 times.
The daily structure is a downtrend — lower highs and lower lows, and price broke the 9.337 swing low 10 days ago and has stayed under it. The drop has not bounced enough to set a new lower high — the last one is far above, at 10.521. A double top is complete on the chart, pointing to 8.669; it is cancelled on a move above 12.121. An imbalance (fair value gap) also sits below at 7.654–8.204.
Bounce into resistance in a downtrend at 8.941. It confirms if price stays below 8.941. A close above 9.219 cancels it.
Double top — neckline broken at 12.12. . What confirms it: the neckline break holding. A close above 12.12 cancels it.
Who's behind the move
The rest of the chart backs the downtrend. ADX is 25, a real trend, with sellers ahead (+DI 17, −DI 27). Price is under every average that matters: the Ichimoku cloud and the 200 EMA (the 20 under the 50). RSI is 38: sellers have had the stronger closes.
What doesn't fit: Price is above the average price paid since the swing low (anchored VWAP 8.479), so the buyers since that low are in profit. These are the cracks in an otherwise intact downtrend.
The rest of the chart points the same way. MACD is below its signal line, so the latest swing has downward momentum of its own. Everyone who bought since the last top is still losing (average since the swing high 10.15). Volume flow is flat (CMF -0.02) — volume is not taking a side. Price sits at the bottom edge of its 100-candle regression channel — as far from its own average path as it gets.
A high-volume price that price has not revisited (a naked POC) sits below at 6.38; and another above at 10.99; value is migrating up (+24.3%) — the prices where most volume trades are moving higher; price is spending time inside value — the market is accepting these prices.
The last candle left a long upper wick at 8.845 — sellers stepped in and pushed it back down.
The levels on the chart
8.264 below and 8.845 above decide it.
8.264 is where buyers keep showing up: it held 6 of 8 visits, and the turns there ran 13.4% within 5 candles.
8.845 is where sellers keep showing up: it held 12 of 17 visits, on 2.5× the usual volume. It is also a fib retracement and the 0.5 retracement of the chart's whole range.
8.766, a 0.618 retracement 2.5% above price: sellers turned price there on 8 of 11 visits, on 2.0× the usual volume; it lines up with the 0.5 retracement of the chart's whole range.
8.643, a fib retracement 1.1% above price: sellers turned price there on 9 of 12 visits; it lines up with the monthly open.
The long-term lines: the 200-day average at 8.161 (−4.5%), the 50-day average at 9.820 (+14.9%), the yearly open at 12.31 (+44.0%), the quarterly open at 10.95 (+28.0%) and last year's range 8.349–45.05.
8.412, an order block 1.6% below price: buyers turned price there on 6 of 8 visits; it lines up with the anchored VWAP from the swing low.
The last swing high at 9.165, not yet taken — the kind of spot where stop orders usually sit just above.
The last swing low at 7.174, not yet taken — stops sit just below.
9.07 is the level on the most timeframes — 2 timeframes (4H/1H), 5 touches; the point of control — the most-traded price, a high-volume node and resting liquidity sit at the same price.
Measured on the running drop from 10.52 to 8.000, price has given back 22% of it — a shallow bounce. The golden pocket, 9.558–9.639, is where the 0.618 retracement of that drop sits. Its extensions mark 7.314 (1.272) and 6.442 (1.618) below.
8.941 is where two separate tools meet: the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the last swing and a resistance.
7.469–7.611 is a fresh demand zone: price fell into it, paused, then rallied hard (8.1 average candles in one move); price has not been back since.
The nearest round numbers: 9.000 above and 8.000 below.
Pattern on the chart: double top (confirmed), measured move 8.669, fails past 12.12.
What to watch
A 1D close past 8.845 or 8.264 changes the picture.
Downtrend — lower highs and lower lows; it holds while price stays under 10.52.
A 1D close above 8.845 breaks the box's ceiling, though the downtrend's last lower high still sits above; no tested level above it on this chart.
A 1D close below 8.264 loses the floor inside a downtrend — a new low in the trend's direction; no tested level below it on this chart.
How to use it
Watch for this: a 1D close back above 9.440 means the inversion failed.
The common misread: reading a bounce into an intact downtrend as a turn before 8.845 breaks — or a push into 8.264 as a break before it gives way.
Since the last read: still in a downtrend, unchanged over the last 4 days.
Key levels
| Level | Price | From price | Role |
|---|
| Resistance | 9.364 | +9.5% | sr, swing |
| 2-TF resistance | 9.067 | +6.1% | confluent, poc |
| 2-TF resistance | 8.968 | +4.9% | confluent, fib |
| Fib retracement | 8.845 | +3.4% | fib, sr |
| Golden pocket | 8.766 | +2.5% | golden pocket, calendar |
| Fib retracement | 8.643 | +1.1% | fib, sr |
| Order block | 8.412 | -1.6% | order block, sr |
| Support | 8.264 | -3.4% | sr, read edge |
| Golden pocket | 8.099 | -5.3% | golden pocket, sr |
Updated 2 Nov 2026. Run a live Avalanche read →
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